Demographic Dividend

The demographic dividend is a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. This usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency rate declines. The magnitude of the demographic dividend is primarily dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers rather than a pure demographic gift. Richer economies, where birth rates are lowest, are likely to suffer first. The effect in developing regions will be different: as fertility rates fall in countries such as India (births in India have dropped from 6 children per woman in 1950 to only 3 today - and fertility is continuing to fall) the number of dependents on each worker will decrease markedly. With a bulk of working age people and relatively few dependents, this might prove a demographic dividend for developing countries and will be important in increasing the global weight of countries like Brazil, China and India.
Developing nations can engulf the benefits of demographic dividend at par with developed economies because when fewer children are born; more women will now join the work force; so this can give a further fillip to the bread-winner ratio.
Human beings save most during the working years of their lives. When they are children, they clearly consume more than they earn, and the situation is the same during old age. Hence, a decline in the nation's dependency ratio is usually associated with a rise in the average savings rate.
The demographic dividend, however, does not last forever. There is a limited window of opportunity. In time, the age distribution changes again, as the large adult population moves into the older, less-productive age brackets and is followed by the smaller cohorts born during the fertility decline. When this occurs, the dependency ratio rises again, this time involving the need to care for the elderly, rather than the need to take care of the young. In addition, the dividend is not automatic. While demographic pressures are eased wherever fertility falls, some countries will take better advantage of that than others.
Some countries will act to capitalize upon the released resources and use them effectively, but others will not. Then, in time, when the window of opportunity closes, those that do not take advantage of the demographic dividend will face renewed pressures in a position that is weaker than ever.
Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, is just now starting to enter its window, under the assumption of declining fertility rates over the next several decades. If those declines come to pass, and if the governments involved take actions that follow, to some extent, those of East Asia, the dividends may become real rather than potential.

The demographic dividend can be delivered through several mechanisms-
Labor Supply
Savings
Human Capital

Demographic situation in developing nations can be described as follows-
Childbearing and population growth rates in most of the developing countries has either declined or rising at a high diminishing rate.
The labor force growth rate has exceeded the total population growth rate.
There has been a massive increase in longevity.
Concomitant with these demographic trends, there has been massive economic growth.
There were several, interacting reasons for the East Asian economic success story:
1. Most countries were able to successfully meet the employment challenge posed by the growth of the working age population (i.e. more and more people seeking jobs), mainly through a rapid industrialization. The greater involvement of women in the labor force concomitant with improved female status, was a subsidiary factor.
2. Savings and investment rates grew rapidly. There is controversy over the contribution of different causes to this growth, especially the contribution of demographic factors like the increasing proportion of the working age population.
3. East Asian countries in the late 1950s and early 1960s changed from having positive views on large and expanding populations, to having concerns about the possible adverse effects of rapid population growth. They adopted and promoted corresponding population policies – adopting development plans with specific population growth reduction targets, legalising the manufacture and distribution of contraceptive devices and drugs. Some governments adopted comprehensive sets of incentives and disincentives to encourage small rather than large families. And population growth slowed down substantially during the 1960–1990 period.
4. Asian countries generally, experienced more political stability than in most of Latin America and sub–Saharan Africa. Consequently, their governments could realistically pursue long–term goals.
5. Taiwan and South Korea had relatively high levels of literacy and received substantial foreign assistance for reconstruction.
This account of change in East Asia is a general one. The picture is of an economic success story, partly brought about by a successful exploitation of the demographic dividend.



CONCLUSION
Demography lies at the heart of our socio-economic system. There is virtually no area that is not influenced by it, and the related trends around the world are not all pointing the same way. Especially the developing and emerging nations will see further population growth, while Europe and Japan will witness noticeable declines and an ageing of society due to the speed of fertility transaction. It is observed that in developed economies the second stage of demographic transaction, implying relative increase in the proportion of the work force (increasing with decline in fertility rate) goes unnoticed. This is causing enormous economic, political and social challenges in the “First World Countries.”
Timing is critical to harnessing the demographic dividend. Some countries—China, Brazil, and have “missed that demographic window of opportunity,” as the relative numbers of youth are now decreasing and dependency ratios are increasing. But in Egypt, India, and the Philippines, the window is still open: the number of youth relative to other age groups will continue to rise until 2015 when the relative number of youth will begin to level off and eventually decline, the World Development Report projects.

Asia and Crises

So across Asia, governments have taken measures to allay disquiet. In China the stockmarket has lost two-thirds of its value since last October; the property market is wobbling and growth is slowing. These trends all predated the latest panic. But the government has had to go further to shore up confidence. It tried to revive the stockmarket by abolishing a tax on share-buying and investing in the market itself. Japan, despite the giddy plunge of the stockmarket from October 8th-10th and the bankruptcy of a middling life insurer, Yamato Life, is confident that its financial system, recapitalised at massive public expense a decade ago, is robust enough to survive the latest shocks.
Japan’s money markets have gummed up far less than those in America and Europe. Even so, at a time when its economy is almost certainly in recession, the authorities are taking few risks. Backed by $1 trillion of reserves, the Bank of Japan has promised unlimited dollar funds to the markets. And the government has announced measures to support regional banks. It has also promised not to sell its remaining shares in the country’s biggest banks for the time being, and eased conditions for companies to own shares in each other as a way to support the stockmarket.
This year South Korea’s won has sunk more than any other Asian currency. The country’s current account, in surplus for many years, has slid into deficit. Banks have made a high number of loans in proportion to their deposits. Households are deep in debt and so are many smaller companies (many in dollars). In a radio address on October 13th President Lee Myung-bak insisted that the banks were sound and pointed out that the currency was backed by far larger foreign reserves than it was a decade ago. He begged South Koreans to cut down on foreign spending and energy use, and to increase spending at home.
In India, the closeted banking system is not heavily exposed to the financial crisis. Its most adventurous bank—ICICI—is the only one so far to cause jitters. Long lionised for financial sophistication, the bank is now associated with Western financial sophistry. After its share price halved in a month, it had to send text messages to its depositors reassuring them that their money was safe. Statements of support from the Reserve Bank of India, India’s central bank, and the rating agencies have helped restore confidence.
Indonesia’s government intervened more drastically, halting share trading for three days after sharp falls in share prices and the rupiah. When the stockmarket reopened on October 13th, the government strengthened its guarantee of bank deposits to deter a run on banks.

(Article reference: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12437723)

Fall in Exports first time in 5 years

Hello!!!!!!!
Where are the policy makers?
I know that they're doing their best besides the political pressure and sulking over-head financial crises, but urgent attention is needed yaar.
Did you come to know that exports fell for the first time in five years contrasting a declining trend in growth.
Exports in October(2008) contracted by 15 percent against 25%+ average export growth since 2003 when the FDI flows became prominent to push up the growth to over and above the earlier mark i.e. 6%.
The exports are declining due to a contraction in demand. OECD economies accounts for over 40% of the India's exports and are showing a declining trend besides availing themselves of an incentive of rupee depreciation. Well, what else they could do? There's a global slowdown, dear.
The fall in exports puts a great pressure on the balance of payments-accounts for country's transaction with rest of the world, since it reduces the aggregate demand in the economy.
The situation is not yet worst, thanks to the depreciation of the rupee which has reduced the import spending that will, at least to some extent reduce the pressure on BOP.
If this depreciation would have helped in increasing the exports, then India would not have been hit this much also. Unfortunately, there's a global contraction of demand of consumers and there's literally no-one to buy from us.

SENSE it up

I wish I were having sense to speak NON-SENSE

Are you religious?

Religious processions (Nagar Kirtans) across the country are in full swing awaiting Guru Purub scheduled for 13th November this year.
A similar procession took place near my house by some local Sikh community.
The very thought of a religious procession upbeats my feet to the drums being banged at first. The intensity to which drums are banged signal the quality of the procession-disciplined arrangement of people (particularly young children of Sikh community run schools) in an array producing tactics, mammoth chariots, elephants, camels, neat uniforms and desi ghee halwa as Prasad. Sikhism has always made me anxious-firstly because of their innocent attitude of catering people, no matter is it a marriage or a procession or whatsoever. Secondly, the delicious food they make, though it makes you look fatter than ever. Thirdly, the amount of fear they have from their God. A Sikh child's upbringing is such that he starts respecting and enjoying the religion. An initiative by parents to send them to a Sikh school, maintaining their own contacts with Sikh people around so that their children could get along well, a recurring visit to Gurudwara to make them realize the importance of their religion.
These were obviously the positive sides; and, not to mention, there's a declining trend followed in Sikhism too. Unfortunately, the procession this year didn't make me happy due its poor quality that is deteriorating year by year-shady uniforms, lethargic drum beats, casual attitude and small in length.(This couldn't be the inflation effect, for sure.)
Sikh's friendly attitude is now contrasted with their violent rage and anger as seen during the communal conflicts.
Though their visits to Gurudwara is one of the many things that has not been inflicted with time; however, if this trend continues people would go more for confessing rather then asking Him to fulfill their wishes.
This is not only observed is Sikhism only, every possible religion on earth is showing this trend. I'm not writing to hurt the sentiments of Sikh’s, but I’m writing to show the contrasted trend that needs urgent attention.
No matter whether you’re a Christian or a Sikh or a Hindu or a Muslim, what matters is your perspective towards life. Your own religion discards you being a follower if your deeds are imperfect. One should make sure that one’s work is one’s religion and should start chanting their work.
Let’s make one unified religion and make sure that it doesn’t deteriorate with time.

Didn't get confirmation mail!!!

Recently I participated in the ET Case Study Competition. The deadline was 3rd November 08 till midnight. Fortunately the date had been extended to 5th midnight.
I managed to snap up the answers to the given case study till 11'o clock on 5th and unfortunately, I've not yet received the confirmation mail.
The winner had a chance to write for The Economic Times, to which I'm desperately looking forward to.
God help me win!!!
Please give this desperate dude some appreciation. lolz..
Now c'mon, you also pray.

Happy birthday to INFINITY

HAPPY BIRTHDAY INFINITY-A SENSUAL BEGINNING.

Though I've not mentioned about it earlier but I was waiting for the good times to come. Now that the good times are here, I'd like to tell you that my book today completes one-full-year. Please don't ask how my copies sold and all sorts of swirling questions that blows up the writer's mind and knocks him for a six. Let me tell you that not all the writers are avid readers but those who are, they make the best of the writers. I'm being too generous in saying that I didn't even read a single book when I wrote INFINITY then. However, now I'm trying to be a better writer( I dare not to say THE BEST). For the writer the book is everything because his mother likes it and there's nothing more important than the verdict given by your mother, no matter if you didn't even manage to sell one extra copy outside your relatives' bounds.

So all the debutants just chill out. If publisher doesn't like your magnum-opus then just go out and roll out at least hundred copies in the market through self-publishing, as I did-that too makes you an author, for sure.

I'll tell about my book in the next post. Better, if my mind changes and I publish it on the internet as an e-book. Just watch for it.

5 hearts!!! Do you have them?

DID YOU KNOW THAT EARTHWORMS HAVE FIVE HEARTS?
Actually I didn't know till the time I read it on a television screen. You might be aware of the programmes that are telecasted on a gigantic LCD screens of Mc. Donalds and alike. (I guess those are company sponsored DVDs that they run, but, not pretty sure. Presuming that they are telecasted.)

A traumatic incidence

Today, out of the blue, I discovered that I recovered from a traumatic incidence from my ‘lifeless’ life. Actually, I’m just too happy- not because I recovered from the incidence but I was over with that part of my life that never existed. It was yesterday that I decided to put a full-stop after reading the following message text(ed) to me randomly by a very random friend.
When people walk away from you, let them go. Your destiny is never tied to anybody who leaves you & it doesn’t even mean that they are bad; it just means that their part in the story is over.

What a thought provoking message, isn’t it?

STATUTORY WARNING: Don’t go that deep into it that you sink in thoughts.

Is it you, or an angel?

Hello...

I was really vella these days but still didn't blog. Just because ummmm.. didn't have anything so great to write on. 

Well, as of now, I present you a simple cheerful poem with a definite rhyming scheme (I swear, I didn't try too hard to make them rhyme. Well that's how you should write).

At the British council, during one of my lessons, I learnt that you shouldn't be making an effort to rhyme the poem. It should seem as a professional piece. 

To write a good poem, one needs to learn to read more and more poems. 

It's not compulsory either to give the poem a rhyming scheme, however, if it's having, it's great. 

Also, keep in mind that the length of the lines is somewhat similar (Though I know that I can never in my life keep them trimmed).However, I've not yet implemented all these with such a hard-and-fast rule, thanks to my lazy attitude.

Here I present to you a sensational poem : Is it you, or an angel?

When the door bell rings

An angel steps in and sings

She comes near to me, makes me numb

Puts her aura on me, with her two fingers and a thumb

She pans her magic wand in the air

Makes the devils dance with the flair

She smiles, she cheers, she glance

Makes me feel like a king in a trance

The angel’s like you or you’re like an angel

I see you now and here, probably everywhere

As I drew my hands to touch your white skin

My mom said ‘Just wake up, it’s nine in the morning’

 

Now you can feel free to comment on it.heheheh..